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Modelling runoff and impact of climate change in large Himalayan basins

K. Seidel, J. Martinec and M. F. Baumgartner
Integrated Water Resources Management for Sustainable Development
New Dehli, India, December 2000

Abstract

The runoff regime in the basins of the rivers Ganges (917'444 km2) and Brahmaputra (547'346 km2) is modelled from precipitation, remotely sensed snow covered areas and temperatures. The runoff cycle roughly corresponds to a calendar year. In view of the small proportion of snowmelt, it is mainly governed by the distribution of rainfalls resulting in flow peaks in the summer and recession flow in the winter. The accuracy of runoff simulations is acceptable in view of the available data and because the SRM model was for the first time used in basins of this order of magnitude. In addition, for the given climate change scenario (T+1.5°, summer precipitation increased by 10%), the already high risk of floods in July-September is slightly increased.


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@InProceedings{eth_biwi_00200,
  author = {K. Seidel and J. Martinec and M. F. Baumgartner},
  title = {Modelling runoff and impact of climate change in large Himalayan basins},
  booktitle = {Integrated Water Resources Management for Sustainable Development},
  year = {2000},
  month = {December},
  pages = {1020--1028},
  volume = {II},
  editor = {R. Mehrotra and B. Soni and K. K. S. Bhatia},
  keywords = {runoff modelling, climate change, KS}
}